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Poll Archive

What is the most likely outcome of the European Central Bank’s Long-term Refinancing Operations?

  • The LTRO provides a disincentive to policy makers to further deal with the liquidity problem, and increases the likelihood of another capital markets crisis like the one that occurred in the second half of 2011. 33%
  • The ECB will run out of money before the economy recovers, and banks will have to begin selling assets at mark-downs. 22%
  • The ECB will continue to buy assets until financial stability returns to Europe and banks no longer need to borrow from it at low rates. 11%
  • The ECB will switch to a NAMA-style asset liquidation program, as in Ireland. 0%
  • Previously dissenting EU member-states will approve the issue of a collective European bond, paving the way for a U.S.-style bond-buying program. 0%
  • None of the above. 33%

What sector's primary market broadly demonstrates the best relative value, right now?

  • U.S. CMBS 19%
  • CLO 28%
  • U.S. ABS 12%
  • Euro ABS 3%
  • U.S. RMBS 19%
  • Euro RMBS 16%
  • Other 3%

What is the biggest threat to the securitization industry?

  • Pending regulation 68%
  • Ratings Agencies 14%
  • The shrinking credit card ABS sector 0%
  • Michael Lewis 18%

Which esoteric asset class has the greatest potential for securitization this year?

  • Solar 38%
  • Shipping containers 31%
  • Entertainment royalties 24%
  • Billboards 7%

What is most important to luring investors back to European residential mortgage-backed securities?

  • The Bank of England’s new transparency measures 0%
  • More robust deal structures 67%
  • Better underwriting 33%
  • Greater ratings stability 0%

The U.S District Court’s rejection of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s $285 million settlement with Citigroup is a sign:

  • We’re finally getting somewhere. 25%
  • It’ll be a longer haul for other similar suits. 25%
  • More of the same. 50%

Will Italy require a bailout?

  • Yes 25%
  • No 38%
  • Regardless, the European debt crisis will move to other countries 38%

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve announce a new round of Quantitative Easing at the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting Dec. 13?

  • Yes, they’ve been hinting at it and it’s coming at the next meeting 33%
  • No, they will hold off on making a call on QE3 until a later date 67%
  • No and QE3 is not in the pipeline 0%

Is HARP 2.0 the end, or are more changes to the program on the way?

  • Yes, the market will be seeing HARP 2.5 soon 50%
  • No, HARP 2.0 will hit targets 25%
  • The FHFA will wait to see how well this program works before rolling out additional tweaks 25%

Do you think the American Securitization Forum’s conference in Las Vegas will be bigger than ABS East?

  • Yes, bigger 25%
  • No, smaller 50%
  • About the same 25%

Are you worried about CLOs being swept up the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s so-called “conflicts of interests rule,” proposed rule 127B?

  • Yes 0%
  • No 50%
  • It should only apply to ABS CDOs 50%

Will Europe ditch the Euro as a common currency?

  • Yes 46%
  • No 25%
  • It will split into two currencies, one for the strongest economies and another for the weakest 29%

Will Bank of America end up paying $8.5 billion in put-back claims to investors in legacy residential mortgage-backed securitizations?

  • 1. Eight-and-a-half billion is just a starting point. Expect more. 44%
  • 2. Less. 0%
  • 3. Other. Disputes will continue for years to come. 56%

Will the U.S. see a double-dip recession?

  • Yes 71%
  • No 0%
  • It's too soon to tell 29%

What should the Federal Reserve Bank of New York do with the remaining Maiden Lane II portfolio?

  • Restart public auctions, but offer the collateral in a single sale 33%
  • Shop the remaining securities privately to a single, large buyer 33%
  • Continue with the series of small, public sales 33%

How soon will the market see a renewable energy-linked asset backed-securitization?

  • Within the next few months 17%
  • Within a year 50%
  • Within two years 17%
  • It's too early to tell 17%

How will the political impasse over raising the U.S. debt ceiling before the Aug. 2 deadline impact structured finance transactions going forward?

  • No impact at all 0%
  • Limited impact until an agreement is struck 33%
  • Investor confidence will remain shacky, keeping new issuance at bay for weeks to come 67%

How long will market jitters persist over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis?

  • 1-3 months 7%
  • 3-6 months 7%
  • 6-12 months 43%
  • A year or longer 43%

How long until Europe sees regular collateralized loan obligation issuance?

  • 6 months – 1 year 26%
  • 1 year – 2 years 61%
  • 2 years + 13%

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